Australia's strategic advantage in metals trade:responding to US import controls and China's export restrictions

Executive summary

Recent actions by the United States and China mark a structural shift in global metals markets. China’s introduction of export licensing for silver and its established use of export controls across critical minerals, combined with the United States’ import-side actions under Section 232 to secure processed critical mineral supply chains, create a strategic opening for Australia.

Australia’s comparative advantages: rule of law stability, scale of mineral endowment, allied status, and growing policy infrastructure such as the Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve, allow it to convert geopolitical fragmentation into durable commercial and strategic gains. Rather than resorting to blunt export bans, Australia can monetise reliability, move selectively up the processing value chain, and anchor long-term off take arrangements with allied economies.

Set out in the matrix below are suggestions as to how Australia can take advantage of opportunities across gold, silver, copper and rare earths, with a particular focus on silver’s emerging reclassification from precious metal to strategic input.

Strategic metals trade and policy opportunity matrix

Metal	AU trade position	Indicative net trade position	Major export destin-ations	Major import sources	US / China policy signal	Australia strategic advantage	Policy risk score
Gold	Net exporter Imports for refining	Large net export surplus A$30bn+ p.a. indicative	UK, China, Hong Kong, Singapore	PNG, United States, New Zealand	US: import-side critical minerals review; China: no explicit gold export controls identified	Trusted supplier premium; expand allied refining and bullion offtake	Low
Silver	Exports ores/ concentratesImports refined silver	Net exporter (raw) Net importer (refined)	China: ores/ concen-trates	South Korea, Hong Kong, Poland	China: licensed exporter regime (2026–27) US: import-side stance	Position Australia as alternative non-China supply; develop refining and industrial silver capability	Medium–high
Copper	Exports concentrate Imports refined inputs	Net exporter (concen-trates)	Japan, China, South Korea, Philippines	EU, Chile (refined/anodes)	US: pressure on processed mineral imports; China: no silver-style ban identified	Friend-shoring diversifica-tion; selective domestic smelting and refining	Medium
Rare earths	Exports feedstock; Imports refined products	Net exporter feedstock, Net importer processed	China, Malaysia (feedstock flows)	China, EU pro-cessed oxides/metals	China: established export control precedentUS–AU supply chain framework	Use strategic reserve to de-risk projects and pull processing onshore or to allies	High

Policy and commercial implications for Australia

1. Convert restriction risk into bankable off take. Australia could use government-backed forward contracts and strategic reserve mechanisms to stabilise revenues for critical mineral projects exposed to Chinese export controls.

2. Monetise reliability rather than restrict exports. Australia’s advantage lies in being a predictable supplier. Export bans would undermine this premium; value capture is better achieved through processing incentives, offtake alignment and investment screening.

3. Elevate silver to strategic-metal status. China’s actions imply silver is no longer treated purely as a precious metal. Australia should align policy settings accordingly, particularly for defence, energy and electronics supply chains.

Footnotes / References

1. Reuters, "China names companies allowed to export silver in 2026–27", January 2026.

2. White House, Proclamation on Adjusting Imports of Processed Critical Minerals under Section 232, January 2026.

3. Australia–United States Framework for Securing Supply Chains for Critical Minerals and Rare Earths, October 2025.

4. Australian Government, Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve – Policy Design and Funding Announcement, 2024–25.

5. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Cth), Australian Export Controls Framework (defence and dual-use focus).

6. ABS International Trade in Goods and Services, Gold and Base Metals Export Data (latest available).